(From the Eugene Weekly, Earth Day 1998 edition) Upstream The violent, drenching storms of 1996 brought the immediate and local consequences of human alterations in water's movement into sharp focus. The Oregon Department of Forestry estimates the number of landslides triggered by those storms in the "tens of thousands." The steeper the slope, the more likely it is to slide when it receives a large dose of rainwater and loses the stabilizing effect of tree roots. Debris flows from slides can travel fast and far, scour streambeds to bedrock, and kill people and animals in their path. Landslides are a hot topic partly because of increased awareness of downstream consequences such as fish habitat destruction and estuary silting, but largely because significantly more people have been exposed to them as Oregon's population grows and develops more types of land. Logging, building and road construction can trigger landslides by altering the way water reaches and travels through the soil, often creating impervious surfaces so that the soil can't deeply soak up water. Clearcutting in particular has been implicated in increasing landslides. Historically, foresters have relied on aerial surveys to reveal landslides in forested and logged areas. New ground-based research is proving the method unreliable, but there's no consensus on whether more landslides occur on clearcut slopes than forested ones or whether aerial surveys have simply missed many slides in both types of terrain. Hoping to clarify the question, a team including University of Washington geomorphologist David Montgomery spent 10 years watching "the steepest, most slide-prone terrain we could find" in the Oregon Coast Range, Montgomery said. "There were 35 landslides in the decade after clearcutting in this small area. It's a significant acceleration." The team also reviewed data from many other sites in the Northwest. Although his team is still analyzing, Montgomery believes the landsliding rate in clearcuts is at least twice and perhaps as much as 10 times the natural background rate. In the long term, Montgomery added, another issue may trump our immediate concerns. "The rate at which we're bleeding soil off the landscape is higher than it's being produced. We don't tend to worry about that, but somebody 600 years from now might be mad. Trees falling over is the primary soil-producing agent in the Northwest, and trees don't fall over anymore." The soil we're losing washes into coastal estuaries that don't especially benefit from it. Geotechnical engineer Keith Mills of the Oregon Department of Forestry says the department is conducting its own landslide research to develop management policies for logging and other uses in slide-prone areas. The state also has a task force on landslides and public safety to cope with the problem in more populated areas, Mills said. After the 1996 storms, the state Legislature prohibited forest operations on high-risk sites above homes and high-use public areas until January 2000. Mills agrees with Montgomery that scientific evidence indicates "there's an increased frequency for a period of time after harvest" in steeply sloped areas with shallow soils, but cautioned that "It's far more complex than saying you don't have slides unless there's logging." It's ironic and appropriate that 1998, the International Year of the Ocean, coincides with the strongest El Niņo on record and comes shortly after some of Oregon's rainiest years in recent memory. The mythical True Oregonian can cheerfully cope with any type of water event-our belief that we can truly harness water-is probably an industrial-era fantasy. As the global climate shifts and human activities change the landscape, we are reminded that the combination of gravity and water can overwhelm our most grandiose assumptions and our most ambitious projects.